Windows 7: Linux Killer (on the desktop)
Those of you who know me even moderately well will be stunned to hear me say this: Windows 7 marks the end of the line for Linux on the desktop.
I’m a huge proponent of open source, and of Linux in particular, and I’ve actively used Linux since around 1994. Two of my current computers are running Ubuntu, and I use CentOS on the site’s web servers. In my former role as an analyst at a large market research firm in Boston, I wrote that Linux had boxed itself into a corner on the desktop by trying to be too much like Windows. Linux UI developers, particularly the Gnome and KDE teams, succeeded in their goal of making Windows users comfortable enough with Linux to switch by making their UIs so close to Windows’ as to be indistinguishable.
At that moment, any differentiation between Linux and Windows was lost. Desktop hardware has become robust enough that we don’t need an OS and GUI that runs ‘faster’ on limited specs. User applications like email and the browser are nearly identical. And, for corporation, why retool IT to deploy a desktop that looks and feels (and, for the most part, performs) just like Windows? Why not stick with Windows?
A few years back, though, Microsoft accidentally left the door unlocked and the car running when they shipped Vista. IT departments avoided it like the plague, but at the same time needed to update their installations. Distributions like Ubuntu came exceptionally close to making serious inroads on the corporate desktop, solely due to the enormous void left by Vista. That window of opportunity lasted a couple of years, and Linux could have pushed through the final barrier of resistance to deliver on its promise of an inexpensive, solid desktop solution.
It didn’t make it. Windows 7, now out as a release candidate, is so much better than Vista and XP that IT departments are going to breathe a collective sigh of relief and haul out their checkbooks. Win 7 is peppy, just like Ubuntu / Gnome, it’s pretty, and nearly all of the little things that drove frustrated Windows users to Linux have been fixed. There’s even less of a difference now between Linux and Windows on the desktop, except for the still large number of Windows applications that have no usable Linux counterpart.
Ah, but what about netbooks? Surely that’s the perfect place for Linux!
I disagree. I own a Linux netbook (the Acer One), and I love it, but only because I wiped the nearly useless, watered down software that it came with and installed Ubuntu (with a custom kernel that I compiled myself for speed and efficiency). The Linux experience on netbooks just isn’t that great. Once Win 7 is customized for the netbook market, there will be no compelling reason to install Linux on one.
Lest you think I’ve completely abandoned Linux, it isn’t true. I’m an open-source proponent, just not a zealot. Linux in the server room still makes a lot of sense, and there will always be those companies who embrace open-source technologies as a matter of principle. As an analyst it was quite clear that there weren’t significant financial incentives to choose Linux over anything else in the data center, and there will always be a split between the Unix camp and the Windows camp. Linux just makes sense on a server.
On the desktop, though…I’m a Win 7 convert!